Release Date: August 10, 2018
This month's 2018/19 U.S. cotton forecast includes higher beginning stocks, production, exports, and ending stocks relative to last month. Production for the 2018 crop is raised 4 percent to 19.2 million bales, on this season's first survey based production forecast. NASS's survey indicates higher abandonment, but a higher average yield compared to last month's expectations. Beginning stocks are 400,000 bales due to lower than expected 2017/18 exports and domestic consumption, and 2018/19 exports are 500,000 bales higher, at 15.5 million bales. Ending stocks are 600,000 bales higher this month. The midpoint of the marketing year average price is unchanged from last month, at 75 cents per pound.
Projected world 2018/19 ending stocks are down 1 percent this month, due to a combination of lower beginning stocks and higher consumption offsetting higher production. Beginning stocks are reduced 450,000 bales, reflecting both lower production and higher consumption estimates for 2017/18. Production in 2018/19 is increased 400,000 bales, with higher expected crops in the United States, Argentia, and Turkey offsetting reduced crops in Uzbekistan, Australia, and Turkmenistan. Consumption is raised 660,000 bales, led by a 300,000 bale increase for Pakistan, with smaller increases in Indonesia, Turkey, and other countries.