Release Date: April 9, 2019
The 2019/19 U.S. Cotton supply and Demand forecasts show lower consumption and higher ending stocks relative to last month. At 3.1 million bales, U.S. cotton consumption is now forecasts to reach its lowest level since the 1890s. Ending stocks are now forecast at 4.4 million bales, a 100,000 bale increase from both the previous 2018/19 estimated and from the current estimate for 2017/18. The season average farm price is unchanged with a mid-point of 70 cents per pound.
Lower world consumption this month results in higher projected 2018/9 ending stocks, with little net change in the other components of the global balance sheet. World mill use is forecast about 400,000 bales lower this month. A 300,000 bale decline in Turkey and smaller declines in the U.S. and Vietnam are largely offset by an upward revision for China. Lower exports for India and Burkina Faso are largely offset by Australia and Turkey. Higher production for China is largely offset by a decline for Burkina Faso.
World ending stocks in 2018/19 are forecast about 360,000 bales higher this month, with an increase in China's stocks more than offsetting a decline in stocks outside of China.